Opponent-adjusted ratings blended 50/50 with market win totals. Backtested against the closing line for a full season. It lost, so nothing here is for sale.
| Team | Exp Wins | Market | Diff | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸PHI | 10.9 | 10.5 | +0.4 | Model's #1 by expected wins despite LA holding the top power rating; schedule shape is doing the work. |
W1 vs WAS 9/13 72% W2 @ TEN 9/20 71% W3 @ CHI 9/28 56% W4 vs LA 10/4 58% W5 @ JAX 10/11 55% W6 vs CAR 10/18 77% W7 vs DAL 10/26 69% W8 @ WAS 11/1 61% W9 vs NYG 11/8 75% W10 · BYE W11 vs PIT 11/22 66% W12 @ DAL 11/26 58% W13 @ ARI 12/6 60% W14 vs IND 12/13 69% W15 vs SEA 12/19 62% W16 vs HOU 12/24 64% W17 @ SF 1/3 47% W18 @ NYG 1/10 64% | ||||
| ▸DET | 10.5 | 10.5 | 0.0 | Dead on the line. |
W1 vs NO 9/13 71% W2 @ BUF 9/17 42% W3 vs NYJ 9/27 79% W4 @ CAR 10/4 66% W5 @ ARI 10/11 59% W6 · BYE W7 vs GB 10/25 59% W8 vs MIN 11/1 63% W9 @ MIA 11/8 55% W10 vs NE 11/15 64% W11 vs TB 11/22 66% W12 vs CHI 11/26 66% W13 @ ATL 12/6 55% W14 vs TEN 12/13 80% W15 @ MIN 12/20 52% W16 vs NYG 12/28 74% W17 @ CHI 1/3 55% W18 @ GB 1/10 47% | ||||
| ▸BUF | 10.4 | 10.5 | −0.1 | Three sub-50% games all season; Wk18 vs NYJ (81%) is the model's most confident game. |
W1 @ HOU 9/13 54% W2 vs DET 9/17 58% W3 vs LAC 9/27 64% W4 vs NE 10/4 67% W5 @ LA 10/12 48% W6 @ LV 10/18 68% W7 · BYE W8 vs BAL 11/1 62% W9 @ MIN 11/9 54% W10 @ NYJ 11/15 72% W11 vs MIA 11/22 69% W12 vs KC 11/26 63% W13 @ NE 12/6 55% W14 @ GB 12/13 49% W15 vs CHI 12/19 69% W16 @ DEN 12/25 51% W17 @ MIA 1/3 58% W18 vs NYJ 1/10 81% | ||||
| ▸BAL | 10.0 | 10.5 | −0.5 | Slightly cool despite a soft divisional back half. |
W1 @ IND 9/13 53% W2 vs NO 9/20 67% W3 @ DAL 9/27 53% W4 vs TEN 10/4 77% W5 @ ATL 10/11 52% W6 @ CLE 10/18 60% W7 vs CIN 10/25 66% W8 @ BUF 11/1 38% W9 vs JAX 11/5 62% W10 vs LAC 11/16 59% W11 @ CAR 11/22 63% W12 @ HOU 11/29 47% W13 · BYE W14 vs TB 12/13 63% W15 @ PIT 12/20 50% W16 vs CLE 12/27 71% W17 @ CIN 12/31 55% W18 vs PIT 1/10 62% | ||||
| ▸SF | 9.7 | 9.5 | +0.2 | |
W1 @ LA 9/10 43% W2 vs MIA 9/20 65% W3 vs ARI 9/27 69% W4 vs DEN 10/4 59% W5 @ SEA 10/11 46% W6 vs WAS 10/19 69% W7 @ ATL 10/25 53% W8 · BYE W9 vs LV 11/8 75% W10 @ DAL 11/15 54% W11 vs MIN 11/22 61% W12 vs SEA 11/29 58% W13 @ NYG 12/6 61% W14 vs LA 12/13 55% W15 @ LAC 12/17 48% W16 @ KC 12/27 47% W17 vs PHI 1/3 53% W18 @ ARI 1/10 57% | ||||
| ▸LA | 9.7 | 11.5 | −1.8 ⚠ | Mirror-image blend artifact: highest total on the board, so the EPA half drags hardest. Not an Under lean. |
W1 vs SF 9/10 57% W2 vs NYG 9/21 73% W3 @ DEN 9/27 48% W4 @ PHI 10/4 42% W5 vs BUF 10/12 52% W6 vs ARI 10/18 70% W7 @ LV 10/25 65% W8 vs LAC 11/1 61% W9 @ WAS 11/8 59% W10 @ ARI 11/15 58% W11 · BYE W12 vs GB 11/25 57% W13 vs KC 12/3 60% W14 @ SF 12/13 45% W15 vs DAL 12/20 67% W16 @ SEA 12/25 47% W17 @ TB 1/3 53% W18 vs SEA 1/10 59% | ||||
| ▸GB | 9.7 | 9.5 | +0.2 | |
W1 @ MIN 9/13 49% W2 @ NYJ 9/20 67% W3 vs ATL 9/24 65% W4 @ TB 10/4 52% W5 vs CHI 10/11 64% W6 vs DAL 10/18 66% W7 @ DET 10/25 41% W8 vs CAR 10/29 75% W9 @ NE 11/8 50% W10 vs MIN 11/15 61% W11 · BYE W12 @ LA 11/25 43% W13 @ NO 12/6 57% W14 vs BUF 12/13 51% W15 vs MIA 12/20 65% W16 @ CHI 12/25 52% W17 vs HOU 1/4 61% W18 vs DET 1/10 53% | ||||
| ▸SEA | 9.4 | 10.5 | −1.1 | Cool-side compression (high total cluster with KC, NE). |
W1 vs NE 9/9 60% W2 @ ARI 9/20 55% W3 @ WAS 9/27 56% W4 vs LAC 10/4 58% W5 vs SF 10/11 54% W6 @ DEN 10/15 44% W7 vs KC 10/25 56% W8 vs CHI 11/2 62% W9 vs ARI 11/8 67% W10 @ LV 11/15 62% W11 · BYE W12 @ SF 11/29 42% W13 vs DAL 12/7 64% W14 vs NYG 12/13 70% W15 @ PHI 12/19 38% W16 vs LA 12/25 53% W17 @ CAR 1/3 62% W18 @ LA 1/10 41% | ||||
| ▸DEN | 9.3 | 9.5 | −0.2 | |
W1 @ KC 9/14 44% W2 vs JAX 9/20 61% W3 vs LA 9/27 52% W4 @ SF 10/4 41% W5 @ LAC 10/11 45% W6 vs SEA 10/15 56% W7 @ ARI 10/25 54% W8 vs KC 11/1 56% W9 @ CAR 11/8 62% W10 · BYE W11 vs LV 11/22 73% W12 @ PIT 11/27 49% W13 vs MIA 12/6 62% W14 @ NYJ 12/13 65% W15 @ LV 12/20 62% W16 vs BUF 12/25 49% W17 @ NE 1/3 47% W18 vs LAC 1/10 57% | ||||
| ▸KC | 9.3 | 10.5 | −1.2 | Cool-side compression. |
W1 vs DEN 9/14 56% W2 vs IND 9/20 64% W3 @ MIA 9/27 50% W4 @ LV 10/4 62% W5 · BYE W6 vs LAC 10/18 57% W7 @ SEA 10/25 44% W8 @ DEN 11/1 44% W9 vs NYJ 11/8 76% W10 @ ATL 11/15 50% W11 vs ARI 11/22 66% W12 @ BUF 11/26 37% W13 @ LA 12/3 40% W14 @ CIN 12/13 53% W15 vs NE 12/21 60% W16 vs SF 12/27 53% W17 @ LAC 1/3 45% W18 vs LV 1/10 73% | ||||
| ▸HOU | 9.2 | 9.5 | −0.3 | |
W1 vs BUF 9/13 46% W2 vs CIN 9/20 63% W3 @ IND 9/27 49% W4 vs DAL 10/4 61% W5 @ TEN 10/11 64% W6 @ JAX 10/18 47% W7 vs NYG 10/25 68% W8 · BYE W9 @ LAC 11/8 43% W10 @ CLE 11/15 56% W11 vs IND 11/19 61% W12 vs BAL 11/29 53% W13 @ PIT 12/6 46% W14 @ WAS 12/13 53% W15 vs JAX 12/20 59% W16 @ PHI 12/24 36% W17 @ GB 1/4 39% W18 vs TEN 1/10 75% | ||||
| ▸LAC | 8.9 | 9.5 | −0.6 | |
W1 vs ARI 9/13 65% W2 vs LV 9/20 72% W3 @ BUF 9/27 36% W4 @ SEA 10/4 42% W5 vs DEN 10/11 55% W6 @ KC 10/18 43% W7 · BYE W8 @ LA 11/1 39% W9 vs HOU 11/8 57% W10 @ BAL 11/16 41% W11 vs NYJ 11/22 75% W12 vs NE 11/29 58% W13 @ TB 12/6 48% W14 @ LV 12/13 60% W15 vs SF 12/17 52% W16 @ MIA 12/27 49% W17 vs KC 1/3 55% W18 @ DEN 1/10 43% | ||||
| ▸MIN | 8.9 | 8.5 | +0.4 | |
W1 vs GB 9/13 51% W2 @ CHI 9/20 47% W3 @ TB 9/27 47% W4 vs MIA 10/4 60% W5 @ NO 10/11 52% W6 · BYE W7 vs IND 10/25 61% W8 @ DET 11/1 37% W9 vs BUF 11/9 46% W10 @ GB 11/15 39% W11 @ SF 11/22 39% W12 vs ATL 11/29 60% W13 vs CAR 12/6 70% W14 @ NE 12/10 45% W15 vs DET 12/20 48% W16 vs WAS 12/27 65% W17 @ NYJ 1/3 63% W18 vs CHI 1/10 59% | ||||
| ▸PIT | 8.8 | 8.5 | +0.3 | |
W1 vs ATL 9/13 58% W2 @ NE 9/20 43% W3 vs CIN 9/27 61% W4 @ CLE 10/1 54% W5 vs IND 10/11 59% W6 @ TB 10/18 45% W7 @ NO 10/25 50% W8 vs CLE 11/1 66% W9 · BYE W10 @ CIN 11/15 49% W11 @ PHI 11/22 34% W12 vs DEN 11/27 51% W13 vs HOU 12/6 54% W14 @ JAX 12/14 45% W15 vs BAL 12/20 50% W16 vs CAR 12/27 69% W17 @ TEN 1/3 62% W18 @ BAL 1/10 38% | ||||
| ▸JAX | 8.8 | 8.5 | +0.3 | |
W1 vs CLE 9/13 65% W2 @ DEN 9/20 39% W3 vs NE 9/27 54% W4 @ CIN 10/4 48% W5 vs PHI 10/11 45% W6 vs HOU 10/18 53% W7 · BYE W8 vs IND 11/1 58% W9 @ BAL 11/5 38% W10 @ TEN 11/15 61% W11 @ NYG 11/22 53% W12 vs TEN 11/29 72% W13 @ CHI 12/6 44% W14 vs PIT 12/14 55% W15 @ HOU 12/20 41% W16 @ DAL 12/27 46% W17 vs WAS 1/3 62% W18 @ IND 1/10 46% | ||||
| ▸TB | 8.6 | 8.5 | +0.1 | |
W1 @ CIN 9/13 48% W2 vs CLE 9/20 65% W3 vs MIN 9/27 53% W4 vs GB 10/4 48% W5 @ DAL 10/8 46% W6 vs PIT 10/18 55% W7 @ CAR 10/25 56% W8 vs ATL 11/1 57% W9 @ CHI 11/8 44% W10 · BYE W11 @ DET 11/22 34% W12 vs CAR 11/30 68% W13 vs LAC 12/6 52% W14 @ BAL 12/13 37% W15 vs NO 12/20 61% W16 @ ATL 12/27 45% W17 vs LA 1/3 47% W18 @ NO 1/10 49% | ||||
| ▸NE | 8.5 | 9.5 | −1.0 | Cool-side compression on the Super Bowl LX roster. |
W1 @ SEA 9/9 40% W2 vs PIT 9/20 57% W3 @ JAX 9/27 46% W4 @ BUF 10/4 33% W5 vs LV 10/11 70% W6 vs NYJ 10/18 73% W7 @ CHI 10/22 46% W8 @ MIA 11/1 47% W9 vs GB 11/8 50% W10 @ DET 11/15 36% W11 · BYE W12 @ LAC 11/29 42% W13 vs BUF 12/6 45% W14 vs MIN 12/10 55% W15 @ KC 12/21 40% W16 @ NYJ 12/27 62% W17 vs DEN 1/3 53% W18 vs MIA 1/10 59% | ||||
| ▸ATL | 8.5 | 7.5 | +1.0 | EPA half hasn't absorbed the Tua trade; mild hot residual. |
W1 @ PIT 9/13 42% W2 vs CAR 9/20 67% W3 @ GB 9/24 35% W4 @ NO 10/5 48% W5 vs BAL 10/11 48% W6 vs CHI 10/18 55% W7 vs SF 10/25 47% W8 @ TB 11/1 43% W9 vs CIN 11/8 59% W10 vs KC 11/15 50% W11 · BYE W12 @ MIN 11/29 40% W13 vs DET 12/6 45% W14 @ CLE 12/13 52% W15 @ WAS 12/20 49% W16 vs TB 12/27 55% W17 vs NO 1/3 60% W18 @ CAR 1/10 55% | ||||
| ▸IND | 8.4 | 7.5 | +0.9 | |
W1 vs BAL 9/13 47% W2 @ KC 9/20 36% W3 vs HOU 9/27 51% W4 @ WAS 10/4 48% W5 @ PIT 10/11 41% W6 vs TEN 10/18 70% W7 @ MIN 10/25 39% W8 @ JAX 11/1 42% W9 vs DAL 11/8 56% W10 vs MIA 11/15 55% W11 @ HOU 11/19 39% W12 vs NYG 11/29 63% W13 · BYE W14 @ PHI 12/13 31% W15 @ TEN 12/20 59% W16 vs CIN 12/27 58% W17 @ CLE 1/3 51% W18 vs JAX 1/10 54% | ||||
| ▸CIN | 8.2 | 9.5 | −1.3 | Genuine disagreement: mid total, so the artifact can't explain it. EPA prior dislikes CIN. |
W1 vs TB 9/13 52% W2 @ HOU 9/20 37% W3 @ PIT 9/27 39% W4 vs JAX 10/4 52% W5 @ MIA 10/11 41% W6 · BYE W7 @ BAL 10/25 34% W8 vs TEN 11/1 68% W9 @ ATL 11/8 41% W10 vs PIT 11/15 51% W11 @ WAS 11/23 46% W12 vs NO 11/29 57% W13 @ CLE 12/6 49% W14 vs KC 12/13 47% W15 @ CAR 12/20 52% W16 @ IND 12/27 42% W17 vs BAL 12/31 45% W18 vs CLE 1/10 61% | ||||
| ▸CHI | 8.1 | 9.5 | −1.4 | Same cluster: EPA half vs market optimism, unexplained by compression. |
W1 @ CAR 9/13 56% W2 vs MIN 9/20 53% W3 vs PHI 9/28 44% W4 vs NYJ 10/4 71% W5 @ GB 10/11 36% W6 @ ATL 10/18 45% W7 vs NE 10/22 54% W8 @ SEA 11/2 38% W9 vs TB 11/8 56% W10 · BYE W11 vs NO 11/22 61% W12 @ DET 11/26 34% W13 vs JAX 12/6 56% W14 @ MIA 12/13 45% W15 @ BUF 12/19 31% W16 vs GB 12/25 48% W17 vs DET 1/3 45% W18 @ MIN 1/10 41% | ||||
| ▸DAL | 8.1 | 9.5 | −1.4 | Third member of the genuine-disagreement cluster. |
W1 @ NYG 9/13 51% W2 vs WAS 9/20 60% W3 vs BAL 9/27 47% W4 @ HOU 10/4 39% W5 vs TB 10/8 54% W6 @ GB 10/18 34% W7 @ PHI 10/26 31% W8 vs ARI 11/1 59% W9 @ IND 11/8 44% W10 vs SF 11/15 46% W11 vs TEN 11/22 70% W12 vs PHI 11/26 42% W13 @ SEA 12/7 36% W14 · BYE W15 @ LA 12/20 33% W16 vs JAX 12/27 54% W17 vs NYG 1/3 63% W18 @ WAS 1/10 48% | ||||
| ▸NO | 8.1 | 8.5 | −0.4 | |
W1 @ DET 9/13 29% W2 @ BAL 9/20 33% W3 vs LV 9/27 63% W4 vs ATL 10/5 52% W5 vs MIN 10/11 48% W6 @ NYG 10/18 48% W7 vs PIT 10/25 50% W8 · BYE W9 vs CLE 11/8 60% W10 vs CAR 11/15 63% W11 @ CHI 11/22 39% W12 @ CIN 11/29 43% W13 vs GB 12/6 43% W14 @ CAR 12/13 51% W15 @ TB 12/20 39% W16 vs ARI 12/27 56% W17 @ ATL 1/3 40% W18 vs TB 1/10 51% | ||||
| ▸MIA | 8.1 | 4.5 | +3.6 ⚠ | Largest residual on the board; teardown artifact confirmed (predicted before compiling). 2025 EPA remembers Tua's offense; the roster no longer contains it. Not an Over lean. |
W1 @ LV 9/13 55% W2 @ SF 9/20 35% W3 vs KC 9/27 50% W4 @ MIN 10/4 40% W5 vs CIN 10/11 59% W6 · BYE W7 @ NYJ 10/25 59% W8 vs NE 11/1 53% W9 vs DET 11/8 45% W10 @ IND 11/15 45% W11 @ BUF 11/22 31% W12 vs NYJ 11/29 70% W13 @ DEN 12/6 38% W14 vs CHI 12/13 55% W15 @ GB 12/20 35% W16 vs LAC 12/27 51% W17 vs BUF 1/3 42% W18 @ NE 1/10 41% | ||||
| ▸WAS | 7.6 | 7.5 | +0.1 | |
W1 @ PHI 9/13 28% W2 @ DAL 9/20 40% W3 vs SEA 9/27 44% W4 vs IND 10/4 52% W5 vs NYG 10/11 59% W6 @ SF 10/19 31% W7 · BYE W8 vs PHI 11/1 39% W9 vs LA 11/8 41% W10 @ NYG 11/12 47% W11 vs CIN 11/23 54% W12 @ ARI 11/29 43% W13 @ TEN 12/6 55% W14 vs HOU 12/13 47% W15 vs ATL 12/20 51% W16 @ MIN 12/27 35% W17 @ JAX 1/3 38% W18 vs DAL 1/10 52% | ||||
| ▸CLE | 7.5 | 5.5 | +2.0 ⚠ | Teardown artifact, third of three. |
W1 @ JAX 9/13 35% W2 @ TB 9/20 35% W3 vs CAR 9/27 59% W4 vs PIT 10/1 46% W5 @ NYJ 10/11 51% W6 vs BAL 10/18 40% W7 @ TEN 10/25 52% W8 @ PIT 11/1 34% W9 @ NO 11/8 40% W10 vs HOU 11/15 44% W11 · BYE W12 vs LV 11/29 59% W13 vs CIN 12/6 51% W14 vs ATL 12/13 48% W15 @ NYG 12/20 44% W16 @ BAL 12/27 29% W17 vs IND 1/3 49% W18 @ CIN 1/10 39% | ||||
| ▸ARI | 7.4 | 4.5 | +2.9 ⚠ | Teardown artifact; the blend travels only halfway to a 4.5 verdict. |
W1 @ LAC 9/13 35% W2 vs SEA 9/20 45% W3 @ SF 9/27 31% W4 @ NYG 10/4 48% W5 vs DET 10/11 41% W6 @ LA 10/18 30% W7 vs DEN 10/25 46% W8 @ DAL 11/1 41% W9 @ SEA 11/8 33% W10 vs LA 11/15 42% W11 @ KC 11/22 34% W12 vs WAS 11/29 57% W13 vs PHI 12/6 40% W14 · BYE W15 vs NYJ 12/20 67% W16 @ NO 12/27 44% W17 vs LV 1/3 63% W18 vs SF 1/10 43% | ||||
| ▸NYG | 7.1 | 7.5 | −0.4 | |
W1 vs DAL 9/13 49% W2 @ LA 9/21 27% W3 vs TEN 9/27 64% W4 vs ARI 10/4 52% W5 @ WAS 10/11 41% W6 vs NO 10/18 52% W7 @ HOU 10/25 32% W8 · BYE W9 @ PHI 11/8 25% W10 vs WAS 11/12 53% W11 vs JAX 11/22 47% W12 @ IND 11/29 37% W13 vs SF 12/6 39% W14 @ SEA 12/13 30% W15 vs CLE 12/20 56% W16 @ DET 12/28 26% W17 @ DAL 1/3 37% W18 vs PHI 1/10 36% | ||||
| ▸CAR | 6.3 | 7.5 | −1.2 | EPA prior notably below market; worth a schedule look. |
W1 vs CHI 9/13 44% W2 @ ATL 9/20 33% W3 @ CLE 9/27 41% W4 vs DET 10/4 34% W5 · BYE W6 @ PHI 10/18 23% W7 vs TB 10/25 44% W8 @ GB 10/29 25% W9 vs DEN 11/8 38% W10 @ NO 11/15 37% W11 vs BAL 11/22 37% W12 @ TB 11/30 32% W13 @ MIN 12/6 30% W14 vs NO 12/13 49% W15 vs CIN 12/20 48% W16 @ PIT 12/27 31% W17 vs SEA 1/3 38% W18 vs ATL 1/10 45% | ||||
| ▸LV | 6.3 | 5.5 | +0.8 | |
W1 vs MIA 9/13 45% W2 @ LAC 9/20 28% W3 @ NO 9/27 37% W4 vs KC 10/4 38% W5 @ NE 10/11 30% W6 vs BUF 10/18 32% W7 vs LA 10/25 35% W8 @ NYJ 11/1 48% W9 @ SF 11/8 25% W10 vs SEA 11/15 38% W11 @ DEN 11/22 27% W12 @ CLE 11/29 41% W13 · BYE W14 vs LAC 12/13 40% W15 vs DEN 12/20 38% W16 vs TEN 12/27 61% W17 @ ARI 1/3 37% W18 @ KC 1/10 27% | ||||
| ▸TEN | 6.0 | 6.5 | −0.5 | |
W1 vs NYJ 9/13 55% W2 vs PHI 9/20 29% W3 @ NYG 9/27 36% W4 @ BAL 10/4 23% W5 vs HOU 10/11 36% W6 @ IND 10/18 30% W7 vs CLE 10/25 48% W8 @ CIN 11/1 32% W9 · BYE W10 vs JAX 11/15 39% W11 @ DAL 11/22 30% W12 @ JAX 11/29 28% W13 vs WAS 12/6 45% W14 @ DET 12/13 20% W15 vs IND 12/20 41% W16 @ LV 12/27 39% W17 vs PIT 1/3 38% W18 @ HOU 1/10 25% | ||||
| ▸NYJ | 5.7 | 5.5 | +0.2 | |
W1 @ TEN 9/13 45% W2 vs GB 9/20 33% W3 @ DET 9/27 21% W4 @ CHI 10/4 29% W5 vs CLE 10/11 49% W6 @ NE 10/18 27% W7 vs MIA 10/25 41% W8 vs LV 11/1 52% W9 @ KC 11/8 24% W10 vs BUF 11/15 28% W11 @ LAC 11/22 25% W12 @ MIA 11/29 30% W13 · BYE W14 vs DEN 12/13 35% W15 @ ARI 12/20 33% W16 vs NE 12/27 38% W17 vs MIN 1/3 37% W18 @ BUF 1/10 19% | ||||
Bagent -0.01 and Keenum -0.02 against Watson -0.09, Gabriel -0.09, Sanders -0.15. Largest clean gap on the board.
Mac Jones +0.02 against Levis -0.07, Hooker -0.08, Ward -0.13. All on real snaps.
Anchored by Trey Lance at -0.14 on a genuine sample. Houston is thin behind Stroud.
Bryce Young -0.07 atop three floor-rated names. Audited down from a buggy +5.5.
McCarthy -0.09 and Brosmer -0.18, the bleakest earned pair. Contained by a modest Giants room.
Drew Lock -0.06 against a Dallas bench at the floor. Sept 9 lookahead clouds participation.
Johnson and Flacco edge Bridgewater plus a rookie. Half the gap is small-sample shrinkage.
Jets room is the grimmest: Geno -0.05, Zappe -0.09, Cook -0.17. Jalon Daniels +0.03 on a small sample.
Rudolph against Taylor is a wash. This score is home field plus rounding.
Rooms level. Arizona is a 4.5-win teardown running an open QB competition; Vegas has nothing to evaluate.
Tua traded to Atlanta. Miami is Willis +0.11, Ewers and two floor rookies.
Saints room all negative, Rattler -0.12. Mullens +0.05 carries Jacksonville.
Benches cancel to two thousandths. Fields -0.06 against Bennett and floor rookies.
Stidham and Ehlinger may be the best pair on the board. Tua's arrival and Penix +0.02 erase the edge.
Indy's four-deep veteran room barely outweighs home field against DeVito.
McKee and Dalton against Huntley and Thompson. Flattest score on the board.
Once you know the line, the model adds nothing. That is why the paywall is off.
Untested ideas remaining: closing line value against Monday openers, and player props.
All three were quarterback news teams. The v3 QB layer addresses it but cannot be backtested, since we already know who played. Per-team error is not charted: the backtest produced rankings, not a clean per-team series.