NFL Metrics · The Model

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Engine v3 · market-informed ratings · last pull pending · every number audited or labeled pending
Read first. The edge column is how far this model sits from the market. It is a disagreement, not a recommendation. These picks went 177-207, 46.1% against the closing line over two seasons, under the 52.4% needed to break even, and the win rate gets worse as the edge gets bigger, down to 37.5% once the gap passes six points. The biggest numbers on this page are historically the worst bets on it.
Read first. Scores = QB-room data + weak home field only. Playing-time intel, the dominant preseason variable (±4 pts), arrives at Tue/Wed pressers and will re-rank this board. Rubric is unvalidated (0 graded picks). Nothing here is a bet.
Collision audit passed. Three name-matching bugs found and fixed during compilation (Kyle Allen had inherited Josh Allen's rating, inflating BUF +5.5 → true +1.8; Penix Jr. and Brandon Allen were mis-rated). All ratings now join on player IDs.
S
Empty by design: requires confirmed playing-time edge stacked on a QB-room gap, checked against a real market number. Unlocks Wednesday.
A
Empty: requires validated weights (50+ graded picks; we have 0) or intel confirmation. B-tier games are the promotion candidates.
B
Sat

Cleveland @ Chicago

CHI by ~4.0 · gap +0.072 · biggest verified gap of the week

Chicago's backups are all earned numbers (Bagent −0.01, Keenum −0.02) while Cleveland's room is measured misery: Watson −0.09, Gabriel −0.09, Shedeur Sanders −0.15 on real snaps. The one large gap that survived the collision audit untouched.

Thu

Tennessee @ San Francisco

SF by ~2.8 · gap +0.045

Mac Jones (+0.02) as a backup against a Titans room where Levis (−0.07), Hooker (−0.08) and Cam Ward (−0.13) are all measured negatives. Both sides built on real snap counts.

Thu

LA Chargers @ Houston

HOU by ~2.4 · gap +0.036

Anchored by the most reliable rating on the slate: Trey Lance at −0.14 on a genuine sample. Houston's thin depth behind Stroud keeps this out of the 3+ range.

C
Sat

Carolina @ Buffalo

BUF by ~1.8 · gap +0.032 · audited down from a buggy +5.5

Carolina's room is genuinely rough: Bryce Young (−0.07) atop three floor-rated names on a stretched Hall-of-Fame-week roster. Direction real; original headline was a collision artifact, now corrected.

Sat

Minnesota @ NY Giants

NYG by ~1.6 · gap +0.027

Minnesota's backups are the bleakest earned pair on the board (McCarthy −0.09, Brosmer −0.18), but Kyler Murray's arrival and the Giants' modest room keep this contained. Post-audit number.

Sat

Dallas @ Seattle

SEA by ~1.6 · gap +0.019

Super Bowl LX rematch venue, but the preseason version runs through Drew Lock (−0.06) vs a Dallas bench at the floor. The Sept 9 lookahead makes starter participation unusually uncertain on both sides.

Thu

Detroit @ Cincinnati

CIN by ~1.5 · gap +0.016

Cincinnati's veteran depth (Johnson, Flacco) edges Bridgewater-plus-rookie, but half the gap is small-sample shrinkage. A real lean shape, not a real lean size.

D
Fri

Tampa Bay @ NY Jets

TB by ~1.2 · gap −0.068 (road)

The Jets' room is the week's grimmest (Geno −0.05 atop Zappe −0.09, Cook −0.17); Tampa's bench rates well, though Jalon Daniels' +0.03 rests on a small relief sample. Notable, not trustable without intel.

Thu

Green Bay @ Pittsburgh

PIT by ~1.2 · gap +0.008 (noise)

Rudolph vs Taylor is as even as backup rooms get; this score is home field plus rounding. The decisive snaps belong to unrated rookies the model cannot see.

Thu

Arizona @ Las Vegas

LV by ~1.2 · gap +0.010 (noise)

Rooms are a wash; this is home field in a costume. The live variable: Arizona is a 4.5-win teardown running an open QB competition, the archetype of preseason try-hard, while settled Vegas has nothing to evaluate. Prime Wednesday flip candidate.

Fri

Miami @ Washington

WAS by ~1.1 · gap +0.008 (noise)

The teardown is visible at QB: with Tua traded to Atlanta, Miami's room is Malik Willis (+0.11 shrunk relief work), Ewers, and two floor rookies. Rebuilders giving young QBs long runway is a classic try-hard setup worth watching at pressers.

Sat

Jacksonville @ New Orleans

JAX by ~0.9 · gap −0.039 (road)

New Orleans' entire room rates negative (Rattler −0.12); Jacksonville carries real veteran depth in Mullens (+0.05). Built mostly on the Saints' weakness.

F
Sat

LA Rams @ Kansas City

KC by ~0.7 · gap −0.002 (dead even)

The league's two best rosters by market pricing, and their benches cancel to two-thousandths of a point: Fields (−0.06, now a Chief) against Bennett and floor rookies. Pure coin flip.

Fri

Denver @ Atlanta

DEN by ~0.3 · gap −0.037 (road)

Denver's Stidham/Ehlinger pair may be the best pure backup tandem on the board, but Tua's arrival and Penix's corrected +0.02 shrink what looked like the week's biggest edge to a rounding error. Post-audit humility in one card.

Thu

Indianapolis @ New England

IND by ~0.3 · gap −0.025 (road)

Indy's four-deep veteran room barely outweighs home field against DeVito and one unrated rookie. A 0.3 lean is the model formally declaring a coin flip.

Sat

Philadelphia @ Baltimore

BAL by ~0.1 · gap −0.016 (dead even)

Two good backup rooms cancel out: McKee and Dalton against Huntley and Thompson. Flattest score on the board.

Expected wins from game-by-game win probabilities over each team's actual 2026 schedule, using market-informed ratings (50% EPA prior / 50% win-total prior). Diff is diagnostic, not a lean. Key structural finding: the blend compresses extremes symmetrically: the biggest hot residuals (MIA, ARI, CLE) are the lowest win totals and the biggest cool residuals (LA, KC, SEA, NE) are the highest, because a 50/50 blend can only travel halfway toward an extreme market verdict. All 32 compiled · league sanity check PASSED: Σ = 272.0 (every game = one win). Expand any row for the game-by-game slate with engine win probabilities (v3 export, Aug 9 · probs sum-checked to Σ = 272.0, all pairs = 100%).
TeamExp WinsMarketDiffRead
W1 vs WAS 9/13 72% W2 @ TEN 9/20 71% W3 @ CHI 9/28 56% W4 vs LA 10/4 58% W5 @ JAX 10/11 55% W6 vs CAR 10/18 77% W7 vs DAL 10/26 69% W8 @ WAS 11/1 61% W9 vs NYG 11/8 75% W10 · BYE W11 vs PIT 11/22 66% W12 @ DAL 11/26 58% W13 @ ARI 12/6 60% W14 vs IND 12/13 69% W15 vs SEA 12/19 62% W16 vs HOU 12/24 64% W17 @ SF 1/3 47% W18 @ NYG 1/10 64%
W1 vs NO 9/13 71% W2 @ BUF 9/17 42% W3 vs NYJ 9/27 79% W4 @ CAR 10/4 66% W5 @ ARI 10/11 59% W6 · BYE W7 vs GB 10/25 59% W8 vs MIN 11/1 63% W9 @ MIA 11/8 55% W10 vs NE 11/15 64% W11 vs TB 11/22 66% W12 vs CHI 11/26 66% W13 @ ATL 12/6 55% W14 vs TEN 12/13 80% W15 @ MIN 12/20 52% W16 vs NYG 12/28 74% W17 @ CHI 1/3 55% W18 @ GB 1/10 47%
W1 @ HOU 9/13 54% W2 vs DET 9/17 58% W3 vs LAC 9/27 64% W4 vs NE 10/4 67% W5 @ LA 10/12 48% W6 @ LV 10/18 68% W7 · BYE W8 vs BAL 11/1 62% W9 @ MIN 11/9 54% W10 @ NYJ 11/15 72% W11 vs MIA 11/22 69% W12 vs KC 11/26 63% W13 @ NE 12/6 55% W14 @ GB 12/13 49% W15 vs CHI 12/19 69% W16 @ DEN 12/25 51% W17 @ MIA 1/3 58% W18 vs NYJ 1/10 81%
W1 @ IND 9/13 53% W2 vs NO 9/20 67% W3 @ DAL 9/27 53% W4 vs TEN 10/4 77% W5 @ ATL 10/11 52% W6 @ CLE 10/18 60% W7 vs CIN 10/25 66% W8 @ BUF 11/1 38% W9 vs JAX 11/5 62% W10 vs LAC 11/16 59% W11 @ CAR 11/22 63% W12 @ HOU 11/29 47% W13 · BYE W14 vs TB 12/13 63% W15 @ PIT 12/20 50% W16 vs CLE 12/27 71% W17 @ CIN 12/31 55% W18 vs PIT 1/10 62%
W1 @ LA 9/10 43% W2 vs MIA 9/20 65% W3 vs ARI 9/27 69% W4 vs DEN 10/4 59% W5 @ SEA 10/11 46% W6 vs WAS 10/19 69% W7 @ ATL 10/25 53% W8 · BYE W9 vs LV 11/8 75% W10 @ DAL 11/15 54% W11 vs MIN 11/22 61% W12 vs SEA 11/29 58% W13 @ NYG 12/6 61% W14 vs LA 12/13 55% W15 @ LAC 12/17 48% W16 @ KC 12/27 47% W17 vs PHI 1/3 53% W18 @ ARI 1/10 57%
W1 vs SF 9/10 57% W2 vs NYG 9/21 73% W3 @ DEN 9/27 48% W4 @ PHI 10/4 42% W5 vs BUF 10/12 52% W6 vs ARI 10/18 70% W7 @ LV 10/25 65% W8 vs LAC 11/1 61% W9 @ WAS 11/8 59% W10 @ ARI 11/15 58% W11 · BYE W12 vs GB 11/25 57% W13 vs KC 12/3 60% W14 @ SF 12/13 45% W15 vs DAL 12/20 67% W16 @ SEA 12/25 47% W17 @ TB 1/3 53% W18 vs SEA 1/10 59%
W1 @ MIN 9/13 49% W2 @ NYJ 9/20 67% W3 vs ATL 9/24 65% W4 @ TB 10/4 52% W5 vs CHI 10/11 64% W6 vs DAL 10/18 66% W7 @ DET 10/25 41% W8 vs CAR 10/29 75% W9 @ NE 11/8 50% W10 vs MIN 11/15 61% W11 · BYE W12 @ LA 11/25 43% W13 @ NO 12/6 57% W14 vs BUF 12/13 51% W15 vs MIA 12/20 65% W16 @ CHI 12/25 52% W17 vs HOU 1/4 61% W18 vs DET 1/10 53%
W1 vs NE 9/9 60% W2 @ ARI 9/20 55% W3 @ WAS 9/27 56% W4 vs LAC 10/4 58% W5 vs SF 10/11 54% W6 @ DEN 10/15 44% W7 vs KC 10/25 56% W8 vs CHI 11/2 62% W9 vs ARI 11/8 67% W10 @ LV 11/15 62% W11 · BYE W12 @ SF 11/29 42% W13 vs DAL 12/7 64% W14 vs NYG 12/13 70% W15 @ PHI 12/19 38% W16 vs LA 12/25 53% W17 @ CAR 1/3 62% W18 @ LA 1/10 41%
W1 @ KC 9/14 44% W2 vs JAX 9/20 61% W3 vs LA 9/27 52% W4 @ SF 10/4 41% W5 @ LAC 10/11 45% W6 vs SEA 10/15 56% W7 @ ARI 10/25 54% W8 vs KC 11/1 56% W9 @ CAR 11/8 62% W10 · BYE W11 vs LV 11/22 73% W12 @ PIT 11/27 49% W13 vs MIA 12/6 62% W14 @ NYJ 12/13 65% W15 @ LV 12/20 62% W16 vs BUF 12/25 49% W17 @ NE 1/3 47% W18 vs LAC 1/10 57%
W1 vs DEN 9/14 56% W2 vs IND 9/20 64% W3 @ MIA 9/27 50% W4 @ LV 10/4 62% W5 · BYE W6 vs LAC 10/18 57% W7 @ SEA 10/25 44% W8 @ DEN 11/1 44% W9 vs NYJ 11/8 76% W10 @ ATL 11/15 50% W11 vs ARI 11/22 66% W12 @ BUF 11/26 37% W13 @ LA 12/3 40% W14 @ CIN 12/13 53% W15 vs NE 12/21 60% W16 vs SF 12/27 53% W17 @ LAC 1/3 45% W18 vs LV 1/10 73%
W1 vs BUF 9/13 46% W2 vs CIN 9/20 63% W3 @ IND 9/27 49% W4 vs DAL 10/4 61% W5 @ TEN 10/11 64% W6 @ JAX 10/18 47% W7 vs NYG 10/25 68% W8 · BYE W9 @ LAC 11/8 43% W10 @ CLE 11/15 56% W11 vs IND 11/19 61% W12 vs BAL 11/29 53% W13 @ PIT 12/6 46% W14 @ WAS 12/13 53% W15 vs JAX 12/20 59% W16 @ PHI 12/24 36% W17 @ GB 1/4 39% W18 vs TEN 1/10 75%
W1 vs ARI 9/13 65% W2 vs LV 9/20 72% W3 @ BUF 9/27 36% W4 @ SEA 10/4 42% W5 vs DEN 10/11 55% W6 @ KC 10/18 43% W7 · BYE W8 @ LA 11/1 39% W9 vs HOU 11/8 57% W10 @ BAL 11/16 41% W11 vs NYJ 11/22 75% W12 vs NE 11/29 58% W13 @ TB 12/6 48% W14 @ LV 12/13 60% W15 vs SF 12/17 52% W16 @ MIA 12/27 49% W17 vs KC 1/3 55% W18 @ DEN 1/10 43%
W1 vs GB 9/13 51% W2 @ CHI 9/20 47% W3 @ TB 9/27 47% W4 vs MIA 10/4 60% W5 @ NO 10/11 52% W6 · BYE W7 vs IND 10/25 61% W8 @ DET 11/1 37% W9 vs BUF 11/9 46% W10 @ GB 11/15 39% W11 @ SF 11/22 39% W12 vs ATL 11/29 60% W13 vs CAR 12/6 70% W14 @ NE 12/10 45% W15 vs DET 12/20 48% W16 vs WAS 12/27 65% W17 @ NYJ 1/3 63% W18 vs CHI 1/10 59%
W1 vs ATL 9/13 58% W2 @ NE 9/20 43% W3 vs CIN 9/27 61% W4 @ CLE 10/1 54% W5 vs IND 10/11 59% W6 @ TB 10/18 45% W7 @ NO 10/25 50% W8 vs CLE 11/1 66% W9 · BYE W10 @ CIN 11/15 49% W11 @ PHI 11/22 34% W12 vs DEN 11/27 51% W13 vs HOU 12/6 54% W14 @ JAX 12/14 45% W15 vs BAL 12/20 50% W16 vs CAR 12/27 69% W17 @ TEN 1/3 62% W18 @ BAL 1/10 38%
W1 vs CLE 9/13 65% W2 @ DEN 9/20 39% W3 vs NE 9/27 54% W4 @ CIN 10/4 48% W5 vs PHI 10/11 45% W6 vs HOU 10/18 53% W7 · BYE W8 vs IND 11/1 58% W9 @ BAL 11/5 38% W10 @ TEN 11/15 61% W11 @ NYG 11/22 53% W12 vs TEN 11/29 72% W13 @ CHI 12/6 44% W14 vs PIT 12/14 55% W15 @ HOU 12/20 41% W16 @ DAL 12/27 46% W17 vs WAS 1/3 62% W18 @ IND 1/10 46%
W1 @ CIN 9/13 48% W2 vs CLE 9/20 65% W3 vs MIN 9/27 53% W4 vs GB 10/4 48% W5 @ DAL 10/8 46% W6 vs PIT 10/18 55% W7 @ CAR 10/25 56% W8 vs ATL 11/1 57% W9 @ CHI 11/8 44% W10 · BYE W11 @ DET 11/22 34% W12 vs CAR 11/30 68% W13 vs LAC 12/6 52% W14 @ BAL 12/13 37% W15 vs NO 12/20 61% W16 @ ATL 12/27 45% W17 vs LA 1/3 47% W18 @ NO 1/10 49%
W1 @ SEA 9/9 40% W2 vs PIT 9/20 57% W3 @ JAX 9/27 46% W4 @ BUF 10/4 33% W5 vs LV 10/11 70% W6 vs NYJ 10/18 73% W7 @ CHI 10/22 46% W8 @ MIA 11/1 47% W9 vs GB 11/8 50% W10 @ DET 11/15 36% W11 · BYE W12 @ LAC 11/29 42% W13 vs BUF 12/6 45% W14 vs MIN 12/10 55% W15 @ KC 12/21 40% W16 @ NYJ 12/27 62% W17 vs DEN 1/3 53% W18 vs MIA 1/10 59%
W1 @ PIT 9/13 42% W2 vs CAR 9/20 67% W3 @ GB 9/24 35% W4 @ NO 10/5 48% W5 vs BAL 10/11 48% W6 vs CHI 10/18 55% W7 vs SF 10/25 47% W8 @ TB 11/1 43% W9 vs CIN 11/8 59% W10 vs KC 11/15 50% W11 · BYE W12 @ MIN 11/29 40% W13 vs DET 12/6 45% W14 @ CLE 12/13 52% W15 @ WAS 12/20 49% W16 vs TB 12/27 55% W17 vs NO 1/3 60% W18 @ CAR 1/10 55%
W1 vs BAL 9/13 47% W2 @ KC 9/20 36% W3 vs HOU 9/27 51% W4 @ WAS 10/4 48% W5 @ PIT 10/11 41% W6 vs TEN 10/18 70% W7 @ MIN 10/25 39% W8 @ JAX 11/1 42% W9 vs DAL 11/8 56% W10 vs MIA 11/15 55% W11 @ HOU 11/19 39% W12 vs NYG 11/29 63% W13 · BYE W14 @ PHI 12/13 31% W15 @ TEN 12/20 59% W16 vs CIN 12/27 58% W17 @ CLE 1/3 51% W18 vs JAX 1/10 54%
W1 vs TB 9/13 52% W2 @ HOU 9/20 37% W3 @ PIT 9/27 39% W4 vs JAX 10/4 52% W5 @ MIA 10/11 41% W6 · BYE W7 @ BAL 10/25 34% W8 vs TEN 11/1 68% W9 @ ATL 11/8 41% W10 vs PIT 11/15 51% W11 @ WAS 11/23 46% W12 vs NO 11/29 57% W13 @ CLE 12/6 49% W14 vs KC 12/13 47% W15 @ CAR 12/20 52% W16 @ IND 12/27 42% W17 vs BAL 12/31 45% W18 vs CLE 1/10 61%
W1 @ CAR 9/13 56% W2 vs MIN 9/20 53% W3 vs PHI 9/28 44% W4 vs NYJ 10/4 71% W5 @ GB 10/11 36% W6 @ ATL 10/18 45% W7 vs NE 10/22 54% W8 @ SEA 11/2 38% W9 vs TB 11/8 56% W10 · BYE W11 vs NO 11/22 61% W12 @ DET 11/26 34% W13 vs JAX 12/6 56% W14 @ MIA 12/13 45% W15 @ BUF 12/19 31% W16 vs GB 12/25 48% W17 vs DET 1/3 45% W18 @ MIN 1/10 41%
W1 @ NYG 9/13 51% W2 vs WAS 9/20 60% W3 vs BAL 9/27 47% W4 @ HOU 10/4 39% W5 vs TB 10/8 54% W6 @ GB 10/18 34% W7 @ PHI 10/26 31% W8 vs ARI 11/1 59% W9 @ IND 11/8 44% W10 vs SF 11/15 46% W11 vs TEN 11/22 70% W12 vs PHI 11/26 42% W13 @ SEA 12/7 36% W14 · BYE W15 @ LA 12/20 33% W16 vs JAX 12/27 54% W17 vs NYG 1/3 63% W18 @ WAS 1/10 48%
W1 @ DET 9/13 29% W2 @ BAL 9/20 33% W3 vs LV 9/27 63% W4 vs ATL 10/5 52% W5 vs MIN 10/11 48% W6 @ NYG 10/18 48% W7 vs PIT 10/25 50% W8 · BYE W9 vs CLE 11/8 60% W10 vs CAR 11/15 63% W11 @ CHI 11/22 39% W12 @ CIN 11/29 43% W13 vs GB 12/6 43% W14 @ CAR 12/13 51% W15 @ TB 12/20 39% W16 vs ARI 12/27 56% W17 @ ATL 1/3 40% W18 vs TB 1/10 51%
W1 @ LV 9/13 55% W2 @ SF 9/20 35% W3 vs KC 9/27 50% W4 @ MIN 10/4 40% W5 vs CIN 10/11 59% W6 · BYE W7 @ NYJ 10/25 59% W8 vs NE 11/1 53% W9 vs DET 11/8 45% W10 @ IND 11/15 45% W11 @ BUF 11/22 31% W12 vs NYJ 11/29 70% W13 @ DEN 12/6 38% W14 vs CHI 12/13 55% W15 @ GB 12/20 35% W16 vs LAC 12/27 51% W17 vs BUF 1/3 42% W18 @ NE 1/10 41%
W1 @ PHI 9/13 28% W2 @ DAL 9/20 40% W3 vs SEA 9/27 44% W4 vs IND 10/4 52% W5 vs NYG 10/11 59% W6 @ SF 10/19 31% W7 · BYE W8 vs PHI 11/1 39% W9 vs LA 11/8 41% W10 @ NYG 11/12 47% W11 vs CIN 11/23 54% W12 @ ARI 11/29 43% W13 @ TEN 12/6 55% W14 vs HOU 12/13 47% W15 vs ATL 12/20 51% W16 @ MIN 12/27 35% W17 @ JAX 1/3 38% W18 vs DAL 1/10 52%
W1 @ JAX 9/13 35% W2 @ TB 9/20 35% W3 vs CAR 9/27 59% W4 vs PIT 10/1 46% W5 @ NYJ 10/11 51% W6 vs BAL 10/18 40% W7 @ TEN 10/25 52% W8 @ PIT 11/1 34% W9 @ NO 11/8 40% W10 vs HOU 11/15 44% W11 · BYE W12 vs LV 11/29 59% W13 vs CIN 12/6 51% W14 vs ATL 12/13 48% W15 @ NYG 12/20 44% W16 @ BAL 12/27 29% W17 vs IND 1/3 49% W18 @ CIN 1/10 39%
W1 @ LAC 9/13 35% W2 vs SEA 9/20 45% W3 @ SF 9/27 31% W4 @ NYG 10/4 48% W5 vs DET 10/11 41% W6 @ LA 10/18 30% W7 vs DEN 10/25 46% W8 @ DAL 11/1 41% W9 @ SEA 11/8 33% W10 vs LA 11/15 42% W11 @ KC 11/22 34% W12 vs WAS 11/29 57% W13 vs PHI 12/6 40% W14 · BYE W15 vs NYJ 12/20 67% W16 @ NO 12/27 44% W17 vs LV 1/3 63% W18 vs SF 1/10 43%
W1 vs DAL 9/13 49% W2 @ LA 9/21 27% W3 vs TEN 9/27 64% W4 vs ARI 10/4 52% W5 @ WAS 10/11 41% W6 vs NO 10/18 52% W7 @ HOU 10/25 32% W8 · BYE W9 @ PHI 11/8 25% W10 vs WAS 11/12 53% W11 vs JAX 11/22 47% W12 @ IND 11/29 37% W13 vs SF 12/6 39% W14 @ SEA 12/13 30% W15 vs CLE 12/20 56% W16 @ DET 12/28 26% W17 @ DAL 1/3 37% W18 vs PHI 1/10 36%
W1 vs CHI 9/13 44% W2 @ ATL 9/20 33% W3 @ CLE 9/27 41% W4 vs DET 10/4 34% W5 · BYE W6 @ PHI 10/18 23% W7 vs TB 10/25 44% W8 @ GB 10/29 25% W9 vs DEN 11/8 38% W10 @ NO 11/15 37% W11 vs BAL 11/22 37% W12 @ TB 11/30 32% W13 @ MIN 12/6 30% W14 vs NO 12/13 49% W15 vs CIN 12/20 48% W16 @ PIT 12/27 31% W17 vs SEA 1/3 38% W18 vs ATL 1/10 45%
W1 vs MIA 9/13 45% W2 @ LAC 9/20 28% W3 @ NO 9/27 37% W4 vs KC 10/4 38% W5 @ NE 10/11 30% W6 vs BUF 10/18 32% W7 vs LA 10/25 35% W8 @ NYJ 11/1 48% W9 @ SF 11/8 25% W10 vs SEA 11/15 38% W11 @ DEN 11/22 27% W12 @ CLE 11/29 41% W13 · BYE W14 vs LAC 12/13 40% W15 vs DEN 12/20 38% W16 vs TEN 12/27 61% W17 @ ARI 1/3 37% W18 @ KC 1/10 27%
W1 vs NYJ 9/13 55% W2 vs PHI 9/20 29% W3 @ NYG 9/27 36% W4 @ BAL 10/4 23% W5 vs HOU 10/11 36% W6 @ IND 10/18 30% W7 vs CLE 10/25 48% W8 @ CIN 11/1 32% W9 · BYE W10 vs JAX 11/15 39% W11 @ DAL 11/22 30% W12 @ JAX 11/29 28% W13 vs WAS 12/6 45% W14 @ DET 12/13 20% W15 vs IND 12/20 41% W16 @ LV 12/27 39% W17 vs PIT 1/3 38% W18 @ HOU 1/10 25%
W1 @ TEN 9/13 45% W2 vs GB 9/20 33% W3 @ DET 9/27 21% W4 @ CHI 10/4 29% W5 vs CLE 10/11 49% W6 @ NE 10/18 27% W7 vs MIA 10/25 41% W8 vs LV 11/1 52% W9 @ KC 11/8 24% W10 vs BUF 11/15 28% W11 @ LAC 11/22 25% W12 @ MIA 11/29 30% W13 · BYE W14 vs DEN 12/13 35% W15 @ ARI 12/20 33% W16 vs NE 12/27 38% W17 vs MIN 1/3 37% W18 @ BUF 1/10 19%
Data: nflverse pbp 2021–25 + rosters pulled 2026-08-08 · QB EPA = recency-weighted shrunk pass EPA/play, ID-joined (min 50 plays; unrated = −0.08 floor) · Preseason lean = backup-room gap × 45 + 0.8 HFA · Win totals: Fanatics, Aug 5 · Movers visible in rooms: Tua→ATL, Kyler→MIN, Fields→KC, Cousins→LV, Geno→NYJ.
Pipeline: Tue/Wed pressers → starter_series + market lines → log_preseason_pick() → grade Friday. Tiers S/A unlock only through that pipeline.

Not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by any sportsbook. Book names identify where a price was recorded and nothing more. No affiliate links and no paid placement.

Informational purposes only. Not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.