Where every line opened and where it sits now. All 32 teams ranked on offence, defence and pace. Twelve years of line movement, and what a move that size has actually been worth.
Same games. Same sides. Different price. Measured across 2,905 games since 2014.
It is not a system, and we say so on the page. You only know a line moved three points after it has moved. That is a description of how this market prices information, not a strategy.
Walk-forward tested against two full seasons of closing lines. You need 52.4% to break even.
| Both seasons | Record | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 187-225 | 45.4% |
| Totals | 207-206 | 50.1% |
| Average miss | 10.5 pts | market 9.6 |
It loses, and it is about a point worse than the market every season. That is why the model is free and the data is the product.
We will never charge for a betting recommendation this model has not earned. It was tested six ways and failed all six. The evidence stays published.